With our upcoming cross-country adventure looming, the Beloved and I decided to celebrate our own Christmas a little early this weekend. On Saturday, we stayed in our jammies, opened our stockings and exchanged gifts. Penny got her first stocking and was excited to find a couple of new toys and a few treats.
We said no tv or computer and we stayed in, lit the fireplace, listened to Christmas music and read. The weather cooperated for such a day by providing a much too rare all-day rain. Pretty much a perfect day.
The Christmas feast this year was a Bobby Flay recipe that we’d decided on – a veritable mouthful: Pan Seared Duck with Red Chile Pear Sauce, Bourbon-Brown Sugar-Asian Pear Relish and Potato-Blue Cheese Cakes. We had it with an excellent Novy Family Syrah.
This week is busy with a lot of prep and packing. I did stop by AAA today while I was out and scored this important travel aide:
We hit the road in THREE DAYS!
A team that wins a lot of games, that is relevant year-in-and-year-out, that consistently makes the playoffs and contends for, but never wins a championship – rightfully said to underachieve on the biggest stages.
or
A team that has been generally irrelevant except for one season in which enough things came together for them to squeak into the playoffs and pull off (an over-achieving) Championship, only to return to irrelevance?
Following up yesterday’s look at the NFC, I wanted to take a look at the AFC, where I think the picture is much more wide open. With Atlanta being taken out by-and-large by injuries, the NFC is really about 7 teams trying to fill 6 spots – the AFC, by contrast has 10 legit teams and even a couple at 5-7 that aren’t mathematically eliminated just yet.
AFC East
New England (7-5) – a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots annihilated the Titans 59-0 and seemed to be on cruise control in their division and ready to make a serious playoff run, but after dropping 3 of 4, they suddenly find themselves in a dogfight for their division. I still think they’re the best team in the east having quality wins (QW, win against a team currently 0.500 or better) against ATL, BAL, MIA and NYJ. Fairly easy schedule remains – only JAX is a quality opponent – suggesting that they’ll make it in barring a big collapse, but they certainly don’t have the aura of danger of previous Pats teams.
Miami (6-6) – the big turnaround team from last year got out to a terrible start, going 0-3, and still being stuck at 3-5 a month ago. They’ve gotten some QWs – NYJ (2x) and NE last week. Big game with JAX this week and a finale versus the teetering Steelers will likely tell the tale. Still, I don't think this team can go very far.
NYJ (6-6) – sort of the anti-Dolphins. Rex Reed’s team race out to a 3-0 start, but have been scuffling for wins ever since. Their only QW was an age ago (September) against NE. They have a couple of winnable games (TB and ATL) and then two against IND and CIN, who may not be playing for much. That bodes fairly well, but I think these guys are done.
AFC North
Cincinnati (9-3) Consider that they lost their 1st game on that crazy deflection play against DEN and you can argue that they should be the 2nd best team in the conference. QWs versus GB and season sweeps of division rivals PIT and BAL (and CLE, but those don’t count). Like the Eagles, inexplicably lost at OAK and that may keep them from getting a 1st round bye. Still, they’re the Bengals, so how much can you believe? I’ll believe a lot more (or not) after their next two games MIN and SD.
Baltimore (6-6) Nobody really seems all that Wacko for Flacco anymore as the sophomore QB has had all sorts of issues. Like the Jets, they got out to a hot start (3-0) and then dropped three in a row – granted, it was to NE, CIN, and MIN – but aren’t those the caliber of teams they’re going to have to beat in the playoffs? (Their QWs are against SD, DEN, and PIT) They have a pretty good chance of making if they can sweep against PIT, which is the last decent team on their schedule, but they're not playing like contenders.
Steelers (6-6) Like NE, the mighty have fallen in recent weeks. The Men of Steel seemed to shake off a sluggish start and were cruising a month ago at 6-2 after cranking out QWs vs. SD, MIN and DEN. Now having dropped four in a row (including head-scratchers to KC and OAK), the Champs will be lucky to get a chance to defend with GB, BAL, and MIA to close after a gimme at CLE this week. Is it really all Troy Polamalu and his hair?
AFC South
Colts (12-0) The mirror of the Saints in the NFC, the Colts have won every week this season – sometimes not so pretty, but Peyton Manning has gotten it done (QWs = JAX, MIA, ARI, NE, BAL) while taking time off from his full-time job as a product spokesperson. With a 3-game lead on home field advantage, they’re almost assured of playing at home through the AFC Championship. The whole “resting for the playoffs” hasn’t worked so well for the Colts in the past. It’ll be curious to see what they do differently, if anything, this year.
Jacksonville (7-5) Who invited these guys to the playoff race? Probably the most under-the-radar decent team in the league, the Jags only QW is a win against the NYJ. They’ve beaten a bunch of mediocre teams but will have to earn their playoff spot with games against MIA, IND, and NE coming up. I don't see that happening.
AFC West
Chargers (9-3) This was supposed to be a cakewalk year for the Bolts, but DEN’s 6-0 blitzkrieg at the beginning of the season derailed that parade. After struggling to 2-3, SD has rolled off a league-best 7 straight wins (QWs = MIA, NYG, PHL, DEN). Tough games against DAL and CIN will determine if they are legitimate contenders to take out the Colts, or another good-but-not-quite-good-enough Norv Turner team.
Denver (8-4) After blazing out to six straight wins, the Broncos came back to earth with four straight losses. They got off the schnide with a good win against NYG and have a slew of other QWs (CIN, DAL, NE, SD). Two tough games (IND and PHL) will tell us if they’re more like the early-season winners or mid-season losers but two should-be wins (OAK, KC) suggest that the Broncos will get a WC and maybe even the division if the Chargers falter down the stretch.
All-in-all, I’m not sure that there’s anyone that will be able to contend with the Colts at home in the playoffs. I think the Pats are starting to show their age, and the Bengals – well, they’re the Bengals. The only real possibility is the Chargers if they can improve their defense for the stretch run. For what it’s worth, I think the Ravens will be the last WC team (after DEN).
The NFL season has reached its ¾ mark and is heading down the homestretch for the playoffs. So, this seems like as good as time as any to review the teams that look to have a shot at the playoffs. For this analysis, I didn’t only look at the record, but also tried to assess the “Have they beaten anyone any good?” question, because let’s face it, there are a lot of bad teams in the NFL this season.
In baseball parlance, I’m calling a “quality win” a win against a team that is currently playing 0.500 or better. We’ll also look at the remaining schedule to see how many “quality” teams are left to play.
NFC East
Dallas – currently 8-4, owns tie-breaker with Eagles due to their win in November. Actually, when you look at the Cowboys, the only other QW they have is against ATL. Their remaining schedule is brutal with SD, NO, and PHL. Another December swoon (which started yesterday in their loss to NYG) and I think Wade Philips is toast.
Eagles – as much as I love them (and hate them), they are also at 8-4, but the only QWs they have are NYG and yesterday’s demolition of the injury-depleted Falcons – so I’m not even sure how to count that one. Tough games against NYG, DAL and DEN remain, with only a home game against the almost-eliminated Niners as one that “ought” to be a win. Have I mentioned how that other-universe-ish loss to the Raiders in October is gonna bite them?
Giants – at 7-5, they might have saved their season with a good win vs DAL yesterday. They have another make or break against the Eagles this week, a couple of winnable games and then a finale against the may-not-be-playing-for-anything Vikings. In addition to the ‘Boys, they have 3 total QWs (the most in the division) due to beating DAL twice and ATL. With the tough PHL and DAL games ahead, I can totally see them grabbing a playoff spot, with one of the other two teams shut-out.
NFC Central
Minnesota – so, Vikings fans, did last night’s clunker against the Cardinals make you worry? The Vikes have 3 QWs (GB twice and BAL) but haven’t had one since Nov 1st. At 10-2, they’ve got an easy enough schedule after a tough game with CIN this weekend and making the playoffs – and even getting a bye shouldn’t be a big deal. After that?!?
Packers – At 7-4, the Packers have shown that if they can keep Aaron Rogers on his feet, they’re pretty good – though their only QW is against DAL a couple of weeks ago. Their position relative to the Giants will be determined with their game against BAL tonight – though they have a tough schedule remaining. They’re going to need help I think to make the playoffs. Man, that inexplicable loss to TB may haunt them.
NFC South
Saints – is there anyone in this division except the Saints? We all watched with horror as the Redskins found a truly I-wouldn't-believe-it-if-I-hadn't-just-seen-it way to crap away a game they’d won, but I’m not worried about the Saints. They have more QWs than anyone in the NFL – MIA, ATL, NE, PHL, NYJ and NYG, which is pretty remarkable. I actually wonder if the loss might have done them well, since they wouldn’t have any “undefeated” distractions. With homefield almost certainly going through the Superdome, these guys are gonna be tough to beat if they stay healthy.
Atlanta – at 6-6 they’re still a viable playoff team, but with their injuries, they’re done. Their only QW is against the also 6-6 Dolphins, and after yesterday's wipeout, they’re going nowhere.
NFC West
Cardinals – another 1-team division, with the Cardinals cruising at 8-4. They have QWs against JAX, NYG and MN and are starting to look more like the Superbowl team they were in January and less like the mess that started this season. The win vs the Vikes may play out for a bye if the Vikings stumble as the only game they have left against a team with a winning record is a final week match-up with the Packers. Would the Packers throw a game (if they were already eliminated) to screw Brett and Vikings --- oh, you know it!
To me, I think the playoff picture will pan out with the Saints as #1 seed, and the Vikings will hold onto #2 (I think they’ll win a game or two and the Cardinals won’t win out even when they should). I have a weird feeling that the winner of next week’s Eagles-Giants game will win the NFC East. I think that Dallas’ schedule will sink them, though if the Pack loses to the Ravens tonight, they should be able to squeak in as a WC. If the Pack wins, I think that last spot is a toss-up.
AFC musings tomorrow!
So, for the last week or so, Penny's been dealing with the after effects of picking up an infection after having worms (ick). But after a couple of days of antibiotics, she seemed to be doing pretty well. And today was the first day back on the mountain after having had her put on a steady diet of bland food, antibiotics (which she will eat disguised in Gruyere cheese --- that's right --- not cheese slices, not cheese sticks, not peanut butter, Gruyere) and boring old leash walks.
She had a great time and ran and ran and ran. As we were heading home, she still had plenty of energy and ran way ahead and I called her back. She came running with something being lightly chewed in her mouth. I think -- oh great, worm-filled coyote poop. She comes up and I tell her, "Drop It!" and (somewhat surprisingly) she does. Expecting to see some half-masticated turd, I look down and there is what is pretty clearly something's liver. About 3" by 2" with what I was pretty sure was the gall bladder port still attached. Mmmmm....yummy!
I think maybe it was a rabbit's -- though it seemed a little big (though honestly I don't know how big a rabbit's liver is...) -- maybe it was from a raccoon?
Anyway, Penny got some treats for dropping on command -- which I doubt were as appetizing as that liver, and she seemed quite pleased with herself all morning.
Happy Friday!
One of my favorite piano pieces is the Schubert-Liszt lied “Der Leiermann” from the song-cycle “Winterreise” (translated as Winter Journey), which describes a man’s journey as he leaves his home and travels through a winter landscape. “Der Leiermann” is actually the conclusion of the song-cycle. It’s haunting and beautiful and I love playing it, though – alas – I do not sing along.
Anyway, in contrast to the past couple of Christmases, our little pack is preparing for its own Winterreise – this year, The Beloved, Penny and I are going to go to visit the Beloved’s folks for Christmas. That’s all good, right? Lots of people travel for the Holidays.
Ours though is going to be something we’ve never quite tried before. We’re going by car. To Virginia. From California. Google maps says it’s about 2700 miles and should take about 42 hours to get there.
We haven’t really planned it out yet, but we’re conceptualizing the trip as 5-5-5 (5 days out, 5 days there, 5 days back). We’ll obviously take a more southerly route and keep a close eye on the Weather Channel before we make some road choices. Penny has done well in the car (and seems to settle when we hit the freeways) but has never had to do car duty like this.
Fortunately, we have a Garmin and wi-fi enabled devices and lots of websites that cater to finding pet-friendly lodgings. Hopefully, we won’t need to stay in any mangers.
And so, I put it to you:
We leave in two weeks!
We turned what might have been a lazy Sunday into a very industrious one, getting The Aerie all decked out for Christmastime. We had the Christmas music playing from the office while we decked the halls and trimmed the trees (our big Christmas tree and our little Monterey pine out back). Speaking of trees, we even added some Christmas cheer to the palm trees outside of our home.
This week's warm weather and clear-sky Santa Ana was ushered out today in a big way with rain showers (and even hail!) and a cold wind from the north.
The change in weather was a good demarcation point to change from Thanksgiving into Christmas, which we're getting an early start on this year. Of course, the first course of action is to get the tree.
Now Penny has never had a tree in the house, and I'm not sure she entirely knows what to think about it. Wait until we put the lights and decorations on tomorrow!
